The writer is very fast, professional and responded to the review request fast also. Thank you.
Book/movie review
22/08/2022
BUS333 Content Assessment #1, Forecasting
Student Learning Outcome: The student will apply a time series forecasting method to calculate forecasts, and use the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Tracking Signal to evaluate the accuracy of the forecasts.
Scenario: A manager must ensure that an adequate supply of copier paper is maintained in inventory. This item is bulky and takes up space, so the manager wants to avoid having excess inventory on hand. However, running out of paper will immediately cause problems in the daily functioning of the office, by preventing necessary activities from taking place. They operate seven days per week. Because demand for (usage of) the paper varies from day to day, the manager needs to forecast (estimate) how much will be used in the future. The following data is available on daily demand over the past two weeks. Past forecasts are also given in the table where available. Forecasts are rounded to the nearest tenth of a case for each day.
Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Demand (cases) 11 14 12 10 15 17 16 20 18 18 22 21 20 24 ?
Forecast 10.0 10.2 11.0 11.2 11.0 11.8 12.8 13.4 14.7 15.4
1. Using simple exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of α = 0.2, and the demand and forecast data as given above, calculate forecasts for days 11 through 15. Put your answers in column 3 of the table below.
2. Starting with day 6, calculate the MAD and Tracking Signal (TS) for days 6 through 10. Put your answers in columns 6 and 7 of the table below. Based on the TS values, is the forecast in control during this period? If not, briefly describe the problem and suggest a change that could be made to improve future forecasts.
Day Demand Forecast Error RSFE MAD TS
6 17 11.8
7 16 12.8
8 20 13.4
9 18 14.7
10 18 15.4
11 22 XXXXX XXXXX XXXXX XXXXX
12 21 XXXXX XXXXX XXXXX XXXXX
13 20 XXXXX XXXXX XXXXX XXXXX
14 24 XXXXX XXXXX XXXXX XXXXX
15 ? XXXXX XXXXX XXXXX XXXXX
Put your answers in the table above, as directed. Do not make entries in the shaded area of the table. You can print this page, complete by hand, and scan and submit your final solution, or else you can complete in MS Word and submit the Word file. (revised May 2
The writer is very fast, professional and responded to the review request fast also. Thank you.
Delivering a high-quality product at a reasonable price is not enough anymore.
That’s why we have developed 5 beneficial guarantees that will make your experience with our service enjoyable, easy, and safe.
You have to be 100% sure of the quality of your product to give a money-back guarantee. This describes us perfectly. Make sure that this guarantee is totally transparent.
Read moreEach paper is composed from scratch, according to your instructions. It is then checked by our plagiarism-detection software. There is no gap where plagiarism could squeeze in.
Read moreThanks to our free revisions, there is no way for you to be unsatisfied. We will work on your paper until you are completely happy with the result.
Read moreYour email is safe, as we store it according to international data protection rules. Your bank details are secure, as we use only reliable payment systems.
Read moreBy sending us your money, you buy the service we provide. Check out our terms and conditions if you prefer business talks to be laid out in official language.
Read more