Economics of Oil, Gas and Energy

Week 4: Assignment

Individual Project

This week you will be submitting your Proposal for the course project. This is described below:

Introduction to the case study

The integrated project is designed to tie your newly acquired knowledge of energy economics to the analysis of major global issues you will likely face in your career. What must be explicit in your project is a demonstration of your ability to use your understanding of energy economics to create a cogent and economically sound synthesis of concepts and ideas to produce a convincing evaluation of one or more of these major issues.

In this project, you will assume a role and describe how you will execute this role. There is significant latitude in the role you choose to assume, but your role must in some manner address one or more of the following issues:

• The prospect of oil and gas production declining while energy needs continue to grow;
• The increasingly urgent need to reduce global carbon emissions;
• The political difficulties faced by all countries in restraining emissions if it means reduced economic welfare for their people;
• The possibility of increasing control of OPEC, and in particular Persian Gulf countries, over oil prices and oil supply;
• The possibility of significant oil shocks/interruptions due to war or political design;
• Political difficulties associated with different parties’ claims to oil production rights and the consequences for negotiating production agreements;
• The increasing need for R&D to create new, economic supplies of energy;
• The relative roles of private industry versus governments in assuring efficiency/fairness in the global energy market.

Structure

Your project can be a case analysis of an actual decision faced by an energy company. Alternately, the project may be a research project that states a hypothesis, provides evidence, and draws conclusions.

In all cases you will assume a role and describe your decision-making process. You are free to choose your role, and creativity is encouraged; the following are suggestions:

• You are the senior vice president (SVP) of refining for a major international oil company. You are charged with developing the company’s refining investment strategy for the next decade. You must consider the uncertainty in the “shape” of the demand barrel owing to new sources of transportation fuels that may arise and the global need (or not) for new refining capacity.
• You are the “energy efficiency guru” of a large country and you must develop a recommendation for the team negotiating an international climate change agreement regarding how much can be promised by way of carbon emissions reductions due to the implementationof energy efficiency measures country-wide over the next 15 years.
• You live in a country that is rich in oil but whose political system has been fraught with regional partisanship. You have been recently appointed to a key role in a commission that will recommend a new constitutional arrangement for defining oil ownership rights and a new design for a management structure that maximises social welfare for the country and ensures social fairness.
• You are the regional VP of a mid-size oil company. Your company has just discovered what may be a major new field (the reserves are highly uncertain). Your job is to recommend an exploration programme that maximises shareholder value while minimising risk. You must consider the uncertainties associated with the size of the reserves, future oil price, cost of development, and the risk that some exploration wells needed to define the reserves will be dry holes.
• You are the director of an international governmental organisation charged with planning for the possibility of a major oil supply interruption. You must develop a recommendation for approval by member countries that details the actions that must be taken to prepare for such an interruption and actions to coordinate a response in the event it occurs.
• You are the supply manager for an international oil company, responsible for acquiring crude and products for distribution. Your company has refining capacity, and some crude supply. But the crude supply is not sufficient to supply your own refining system. Further, your refining capacity is not sufficient enough to supply all the product needed for your gasoline, diesel and jet fuel customers. Describe the process you will go through to deliver next month’s supply in the most economic way possible.
• You are the “King/Queen of the World.” You have assembled the leaders of all countries to present their arguments regarding their rights/obligations/entitlement related to reducing their country’s carbon emissions. You have the authority to require specific commitments from each country and to enforce them. You are focused on the next 20 years. The commitments can involve quantitative emissions limitations and you can require the transfer of funds from one country to the other. You must decide both the overall level of emissions to be met over the next 20-year horizon and the specific commitments from each country. Your goal is to be fair in allocating the economic burden. You must also decide the appropriate roles for private industry versus government.
• You are in charge of allocating all funding for energy R&D for your country, a large user of fossil fuels (could be China, India, the EU, USA, etc.) You must decide how to allocate these funds to maximise the economic benefit to your country while maximising the likelihood of meeting aggressive carbon emissions targets.
• You are the public relations officer of a large nuclear power consortium. Your job is to argue the benefits of nuclear power. Prepare a keynote address to a world energy congress, with slides that support your arguments in favor of increased emphasis on nuclear as an energy source. Include responses to possible objections to your position.
• You are an advisor to OPEC. You have been asked to prepare an analysis of future demand for OPEC oil, including the range of uncertainty.
• You are an advisor to the petroleum minister of Saudi Arabia. You have been asked to prepare a recommendation on whether or not to significantly expand Saudi oil production capacity.
• You are a skeptic. You do not believe in the Hubbert “peak oil” model, rather believing that there are vast as-yet undiscovered oil deposits that await only the advent of new technology to find and produce them and sufficiently high oil prices. Neither do you believe in the alarm raised by those who think significant climate change is around the corner unless remedies are quickly enacted. You think any evidence of recent warming is the product of random changes in global temperature that have occurred for countless eons. You do not believe any part of this is anthropogenic—produced by human activity. State the best case you can make for your position. Now reverse roles and develop a rebuttal to this case. Conclude with your actual personal assessment of the reality, or not, of both “peak oil” and anthropogenic climate change.

Further guidance and direction

Depending on the role you have assumed, your target audience will differ. Develop a clear picture of this audience before launching out. The steps to follow are below:

1.    Identify your audience (even if you have chosen something like the “King/Queen of the World,” role, you will have to explain your decisions to keep your “subjects” happy);

2.    Develop a preliminary set of arguments you will present (these can change as you discover more);

3.    Anticipate the counter-arguments you can expect to encounter; make a list;

4.    Determine the degree to which your arguments will likely involve quantitative analysis; assure yourself you can handle this;

5.    Determine the sources you will need; make a list;

6.    Write your proposal with your audience in mind.

Assignment detail

A two page typed Proposal (1,000-word maximum) of your Final Project (week 8) must be turned in to your Instructor. This proposal will include the following and follow the Harvard Referencing System.

• A summary of your project—case study or a research paper—and the course topic(s) your project will address;
• A statement of the role you are hypothetically assuming;
• A statement of sources you will use and cite;
• A brief description of arguments you expect to be presenting (note that these can, and arguably even should, change in your final submission; you are not “locked in” to the arguments you present at this stage of your project);
• A statement of the quantitative methods that will be used to highlight your findings.

The evaluation and grade of your outline will be based on the following criteria:

The Final Project should not exceed 3,000 words plus bibliography and attachments. The evaluation and grade of your outline will be based on the following criteria:

• The difficulty of the topic chosen;
• Explicit inclusion of one or more elements of this module;
• Evidence that you understand key module concepts;
• Quantitative depth;
• Correct format and style;
• Quality of sources;
• Synthesis of diverse concepts introduced in this module;
• Quality and maturity of thought and depth of your argument and analysis;

• Credibility and elegance of your argument;
• Responsiveness to your professor’s comments;
• Style and grammar.     

During the Outline phase (Week 4), the critical result how you have organised the structure of your project and how you refine this based on feedback from your Instructor.

Please make sure that you cite and reference all your outside sources properly, as per the Harvard Referencing System.

Use the Turnitin link below to submit your assignment.